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 Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex

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PostSubyek: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Fri Jun 24, 2011 5:55 pm

First topic message reminder :

Selamat sore wonosari'ers, untuk meramaikan forum Wonosari Gunungkidul, perkenankan saya akan sharing tentang belajar forex online trading. Dalam hal ini kita belajar dari awal mengenai forex trading sehingga bisa memahami, bisa melakukan transaksi di forex untuk mendapatkan keuntungan. Bagi yang tertarik belajar bersama saya saya persilahkan feedback.. Insya Allah step by step pelajaran kita sampaikan. Kali ini perkenalan dulu. Thanks :)

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Wed Aug 10, 2011 1:33 pm

Short Term Trading

The “secret” is the shorter your time frame of position, the less money you earn.

It is sad, but it is true. Think about any investment you have ever been involved in. Did you succeed in hustle through everything for one day? And if you were so lucky, how many times did you repeat it? Not so many. It is because the universal rule of existence, i.e. growth, is the same as universal rule of speculation:

It takes time for profits to grow.

Successful traders know that a market can move only for a little distance for one minute, for 5 minutes it can move further, for 60 minutes – even more, and, who knows, how further – for a day or a week. Losing traders want to trade within very short periods of time, automatically limiting the potential of their profit.

Inherently, they restrict their profits and follow the scenario of unlimited losses on purpose. It is no wonder so many traders obtain such a bad result in the short-term trading. They locked themselves in impasse, following the delusion which is spread by brokers and sellers of trading systems: it is possible to make huge profit catching highs and lows of the market during the day. This opinion is supported by seemingly rational statement – trading during the day and not leaving the position opened at night, you are not exposed to news and sudden changes, limiting your risk. It is totally wrong, moreover, by two reasons.

First, your risk is under your control. The only control measure in this business is setting of stop-loss point – a level which position closes at. Next morning market can open with gap much further than your stop-loss (jump over your stop-loss), though it is rare case, but even in that situation we can limit the losses having stops and fierce desire to come out of losing deals. Losers hold on to loses, winners – never do that.

As soon as you open position with stop-losses, you can loose only estimated before amount of money. No matter when or how you opened position, your stop-loss limits your risk. Your risk is the same whether you buy at absolute high of new market or at its absolute low.

Rejection from overnight positions limits the period of time, during which your capital should be growing. Sometimes market opens against you, but if we follow the right direction, in most cases market will open in our favor.

And what is more important is finishing trading by the end of day or, worse, in some artificial moment, let’s say, by 5- or 10-minutes chart, we cardinally limit the potential of profit. Do you remember, I said that difference between losers and winners is that losers hold for their losses? Another difference is that winners hold their winning positions, meanwhile losers leave “too early”. It looks like losers cannot stand successful positions: they are so damn happy to get any profit, that leave the game too early (usually during the entry day).

You will never gain a lot of money until you learn to hold successful positions, besides, the longer you hold them, the more potential of profit you have. When successful farmers plant the field, they do not dig out the plants every minute to see how they are growing. They allow them to spring and grow up. We, traders, could adopt many things of this natural process of growing. Success of traders’ work is the same as farmers’ work, to raise successful deals, time is needed.

An extract from the book “Long-term secrets of short-term trading” by Larry Williams

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Short-term_trading
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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:03 pm

Locking Strategy

Locking is derivative from hedging, the technique of covering risks connected with changes in markets behavior. The difference between hedging and locking is the following: hedging is used with different trading tools, lock – with one trading instrument.

Locking is applied as or instead of stop-loss for losses limiting. The mechanism of lock establishment is rather simple – if a deal is unprofitable, there is set pending order at some distance from the price. Such tactics allows escaping the moss and even initially unprofitable order closing with profit, on the condition that the price will return to the necessary level or total volume of profitable positions will exceed the losses.

Let’s consider the method of locking placed in public in Internet. This method is based upon the “catching” of movements by 40-50 pips, so it can be successfully applied in the intraday trading. In opinion of this method author, you may not use any indicators; it is your personal decision. For a start, it is necessary to digest some rules of risks’ limitation:

1. Total volume of opened positions should not exceed 10 % of deposit. 2. Maximal quantity of opened positions should not exceed 10. 3. The volume of deposit should be not less than 30 lots (it is supposed the ratio of deal volume to deposit amount, i.e. if the deal volume is 0.1 lot, deposit should be min 3000 USD).


Then setting of the method itself:

1. Put pending order at level 30-40 points from the price. 2. As soon as the first position is opened, put the second stop-order in the same direction at the level 10-15 points from the first deal and one more pending order in the opposite direction at the level 10-20 points in the same volume, or be ready to open it manually, if price goes other way. Lock is forming this way and it fixes loss in amount of 10-20 points, if entrance will be unlucky. 3. If order opened, but price moved in opposite direction, touched reversed pending order, put pending order in the direction of price (i.e. opposite to the initial way) at the level 10-15 points. 4. Profitable positions can be placed in break-even position by trailing stop, and reverse stop-orders which were not touched are moved by 10 points from the next opened position. 5. As soon as the sum of profit and loss becomes positive or negative with minimal value, all positions may be closed. In such way, you can try to make more profit. 6. The volume of every opened position can vary, but total volume of opened positions should be more at the place where price is moving to.




Example of trading by described above method: currency pair EUR/USD jumped from 1.2195 and moves up. Buy position in volume 0.3 lot was placed at the level 1.2225 – 30, buy stop order in 0.2 lot and two sell stop orders: 1.2200 0.3 lot and 1.2285 0.2 lot.

The price touched buy stop order and moved down, but having reached 1.2201 changed its direction again. In 11:00 – 20 GMT after attaining 1.2234 the pair began to descend till 1.2200 touching sell stop. And turns upwards again till 1.2223. Situation: volume of buy orders 0.5 lot, sell 0.2 lots.

In 14:30 GMT states open. Choose the worst variant – i.e. do NOTHING until the states. Cancel pending orders sell stop and wait for news release. After – add by the price movement and do nothing with losing positions. States open and the pair swiftly falls….

Orders are activated: #1 sell stop 1.2200 0.3 lot

1.2 sell stop 1.2190 0.2 lot we add pending orders #3 sell stop 1.2180 0.2 lot,
1.4 sell stop 1.2170 0.2 lot
1.5 sell stop 1.2160 0.2 lot
Price touches 1.2170 and opens the fourth sell stop 0.2 lot and jumps off. Let’s close the positions: sell 1,2200 0,3 lot, sell 1,2190 0,2 lot (closing approximately at 1,2178-80). Profit 10 pips in 0,2 lot and 20 pips in 0,3 lot.

Opened positions 0,5 buy and 0,4 sell (sell from 1,2180 and 1,2170). Jumped off to 1,2287 the pair moved down again… Order № 6 sell 0,3 at 1,2280-82 (at closing level of sell-orders or – or some pips higher).

From 1.2179 down again….

Waiting for further fall and add for sell every 10-15 pips. Sell stop #7 1.2150 0.2 lot. Sell stop #8 1.2140 0.2 lot.

At the level 1.2134 we get: buy 0.5 lot and sell 1.1. Close all orders. Total position – profit.

Opinions of traders on advisability of locking split over contrarily. If one can consider this technology as breakeven, flexible and not requiring indicators and even special skills of fundamental and technical analysis, others say about pointless of its usage on all criteria adding psychological factor and opportunity to bitch things up which can lead to fatality of deposit.

Traders who successfully apply locks also differ in opinions. Ones consider them as the last means for rescue of unlucky opened position; others apply locking as the main strategy of trading. In both cases, traders close with profit or, at least, make serious loss minimal.

Locking has significant advantages compared with stop loss. Firstly, skillfully used locks can turn your losses into profit. Secondly, as a consequence from the first conclusion, complicated market analytics lose its importance. It is rather difficult to predict the market behavior even for the next hour, but with the help of lock you can change the situation for your own benefit, placing the next pending order in the direction of price movement, covering negative positions by volume. Thirdly, the essence of the technology and described above method is rather simple and evident, so it can be used even by newbies. And at the end, usage of locking does not contradict to the rules of capital management, and so it is serious rival of risks limitation instrument, stop loss.

Reverse of the coin is necessity of rather large deposit relatively to allowable working orders volume. As it was pointed by the author of locking method, it is necessary, at least, 30 working lots, and ideal ratio is 100 working lots. So, rather big amount of investments will stay at account unengaged. Also fundamental defect of locking connected with money stock at trading account, - long-term hanging up of lock, for example, during transition to flat with fluctuating market movements in 20-30 pips in both directions, it will be rather difficult to put a lock and, moreover, without skills you can quickly make a real mess of things. Antagonists of locking confirm that in the same situation using stop loss and increasing the volume of trades, more quantity of pips can be made. There is the point, in fact, reverse orders in larger volume and stop losses are frequently practiced and they prove their efficiency. Moreover, after position with stop-loss is closed, a part of margin becomes free, and it gives an opportunity to increase the volume by several times for reverse order unlike locking where every new order uses new amount of funds.

In spite of this, many dealing centers allow opening the same by volume but differently directed positions, calculating margin as for one deal. It means that 2 opened positions by one currency pair for buy and sell in volume 1 lot will have margin in amount of 1000 USD with leverage 1:100 instead of 2000 USD. However, often in many DC such case will not be approved. Locking loses its essence, because it will be necessary to increase the deposit by several times in order to get significant results.

From psychological point of view, locking gives the opportunity not to be afraid of losses as it is with stop loss. From the other side, it can stand you in bad stead, if you open huge number of orders and get confused regarding that everything can be corrected.

The main things which gurus of locking pay attention to are:

1. Limited quantity of allowable orders in trading - 10. 2. Limited volume of trades, total volume of all opened positions is 10% of deposit or not more than 25% of deposit. 3. Constant migration of pending orders following the price for reverse orders and moving before the price for direct ones. 4. Necessity of catching price movements not less than 40-50 point.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Locking
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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Fri Aug 12, 2011 3:04 pm

The Martingale Strategy

The martingale strategy is well-know for gamble players since XVIII century. It consists in the constant parlays’ raise in the case of failure. In such way all previous losses are easily covered by one gain. The size of the parlay becomes minimal, as soon as player wins. This strategy works perfectly in games such as “heads or tails”, “more or less” with payments more than 2 to 1 (if the payments are 2:1, one gain will cover all failures, but nothing more than that). Does this approach is applicable for the currency trading?

In point of fact, not focusing attention on trifles, the currency rate can go either upward or downward. In other words, if to limit the order by the clear values of swaps and profits, than the differences from gambles become minimal. Instead of the parlays’ size, the value of order is increasing and trade stops to depend on the analytics, release of news and other events, which influence the price formation.

In spite of its simplicity, it is not as good, as it should be. The first problem – the residual on balance: it has to be as large, in order to withstand more than 5 (at least!) sequential upward movements of the order’s value, taking into account the automatic stop, which every dealing center has in case if the deposit size will decrease greatly, for example at InstaForex Company the automatic stop will work out when the deposit size will be 10% of the initial amount.

Secondly, upward or downward movements of the rate must be considered. If a probability of head or tail falling at the endless quantity of gambles tends to ½, then, let say, in the presence of defined downward trend, it will be very hard to make a profitable closure of more than one or two orders in profit of 10 buying commands.

Thirdly, if instead of order’s value increase to put take-profit higher, or to advance it along with values, the probability to “catch loss” uprises (stop-loss activates). Despite all rules of the capital management, it will be needed to keep the ratio stop/profit 1:1. Otherwise, the winning deal can take a number of months.

Finally, the fourth, the psychological factor. Accumulating the critical balance mass (it mean the sum on the balance, which allows trading with large volumes and can lead to the major losses in the case of deal’s unprofitability), it is very hard to control emotions. That is why it is very difficult to start with minimal value of the order, and at the same time, to observe the next loss.

As it seen from above, the martingale works badly as a main strategy. However, for all that, the martingale is a good variant not to recede from the progressive increase of the orders’ value. How to use it correctly for trading at Forex we will discuss later.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Martingale
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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Sat Aug 13, 2011 2:10 pm

Pipsing Strategy

Actually, such approaches to trading are rather complicated, but in spite of this, almost all newbies are trying to trade in such way.

Now about the method itself.

This approach is applied for making profit from fluctuations during the day. During the day some traders make more than 200 deals, the period of such positions’ life in this way is about several minutes. Of course, profit by such positions separately is small, but it can reach significant amount in total.

The idea of pipsers – earn on intraday movements. On the average during the day currencies move for about 50-60 points. However, this can be calculated if we take the price of day opening and the price of day closing. But if we take into account that currency rates do not constantly grow or fall within the day but make insignificant fluctuations, it will be in the end that currency moves for much more points for a day. Pipsers are trying to catch these fluctuations.

This approach is compared with roulette – the same playing methods, approximately the same chances, though probability of victory at Forex using this approach is twice higher.

Such system is doomed. There are several reasons for that.

1. Trying not to miss even the smallest rate movement, pipsers use levels of losses limitation (stop-loss) which are very close to the market.

Setting this level, probability of catching the loss during market noise is very high, even if you correctly determined trend direction but misjudged rather opposite strength of bulls and bears. It is very easy to make a mistake ascertaining the direction for the next hour. It is more difficult that to determine the aims of daily movement.

The simplest decision protecting against the order execution which fixes the loss, is absence of this order, but then you have a risk to lose more funds after fast movement against you, when price moved so far that it did not seem rollback to the previous levels in the next minutes or hours probable. Trading with large part of deposit not putting stop-losses can lead to margin call, i.e. losing the whole deposit.

2. Stress when you are trading with real money. As a rule, such strategy is firstly used at DEMO accounts, where you have virtual money, so there is no fear to lose them, and orders execution is made automatically, i.e. instantly.

So there are several factors, speed of requests’ execution and stress which become worse along with every pip of price changing against you. Pipsing implies constant stress, and affected by stress you can not make rational decisions.

Also we should mention the fact that brokers do not like clients who request huge number of operations. There are some limits for quantity of requests in a unit of time and too aggressive customers requesting orders every second can be asked to close an account.

Scalping is closer to achievement of some positive result. It is similar to pipsing, but its goal is more than several pips by one position.

Here are several rules of scalping tactics:

Simultaneous work with several currency pairs and effort of investigating their group movement. 90% of these systems are based on the group movement of currencies against the US Dollar. Though, there are systems based on the euro and the pound. Currency- engine and lingering currency are chosen. Let’s say, EUR/USD is chosen as alarm, AUD/USD as currency for trade (supposed, that it moves with delay compared to the euro). M1 chart or tick chart is chosen. The majority of manipulations are executed by orders.

Described above ideas are actively discussed at different forums. Usage of these approaches requires strong nerves and good reaction.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Pipsing
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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Sun Aug 14, 2011 10:52 am

Pipsing EURJPY

The daily work in front of the monitor, minimum of news and maximum of luck, somebody use additional measures – for example valerian tincture, all these are included in pipsing. There is no need to know the financial tools of the world economy’s regulations, and countries’ GDP do not take a dominant lead. Even at bullish market, during the day, there are a lot of pullbacks, basically, at which the positions can be opened and closed on the presumptive maximums. The main rule of the pipser is not to go against the trend.

The strategy of pipsing for the EUR/JPY pair allows fixing stops not at the maximal nearness to the opening price, but to take into account the risks and to admit the possible losses by stops. Such “relaxed” behavior for this pair is caused by the relatively low volatility at Forex market. The daily changes do not exceed 200 pips, very rare are to 300 pips, there are no more than 10 such situations a year, and intraday changes of 400 pips in 2008 have happened only once in January, in 2007 it was twice, in February and in August.

These things allow to open short positions without serious risk, anyway it is necessary to look at hourly chart, in order not to miss the reversal of the tendency, and in the case of situation’s worsening, or for example natural disaster in Japan, it is needed to buy the euro against the yen.

The optimal profit for pipsing on the EUR/JPY pair is 5-7 pips, stop order can be set at 15-20 pips. From the beginning of 2008 the Euro has strengthened for 600 pips, but now bears got their way and the EUR/JPY rate returns to the beginning, in August the euro price reduced to 160 against 162 in the beginning of the year.

Pipsers’ recommendations – dealings for a fall (bear operation), in spite of all changes during the day there is no point to flatter yourself and to buy in the moment, when market “says” sell, it is better to wait pullbacks. Because of negative data concerning unemployment rate and other news of Eurozone, as well as positive data of Japan it is possible to conclude, that the price for Euro will be falling. The general sentiment of the market and traders’ forecasts testify about this.

There is no need to flatter yourself with the less steady pair, because the changes of 100 pips for the pipsers mean the losing of the deposit, the result of pipsing is determined in the end of the day and consists of the spread, losses and profit, of course if the profit is higher this mean that the day was good. That is why you should set up the resistance levels, follow the figures, and do not spare to close them, if there is a breaking through. Despite the fact that the intraday trading is the strategy which means the setting of the stop-orders, a lot of traders who “catch” profit’s points – ignore this rule, explaining that if he/she is working right now at the terminal, nothing will happen.

It is recognized that some brokers do not like pipsers and sometimes execute all our requests with delays, ignoring them. This is a fate of anybody who is making about 200 transactions a day. If your broker is honest, then you will not feel that you are infringed or ignored. The EUR/JPY pair is a good tool for traders who work during the day.


Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Pipsing_EURJPY
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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Mon Aug 15, 2011 1:50 pm

Money Management

Money Management is a set of rules and specific techniques, simultaneously oriented to the risk minimization and profit maximization.

Risk is a maximal amount of assets, which will be lost until a decision about closing of an unprofitable position will be made. In such way, the risk is a difference between opening price of a position and price of the stop-loss order or overturn of the position multiplied the deal’s volume.

The main principles of the money management:

1. The total amount of the invested money should not exceed 50% of the total capital. This principle prescribes a rule about calculation of margin for open positions: the sum of the obligatory reserve for usage in non-standard situations and continuation of the normal work must be no less than the half of the capital.

50% is a value brought by Murphy; however, a lot of analysts think that the much less percent of invested assets must be 5% - 30%

2. The total amount of assets, invested to the only one market, can not be more than 10% - 15% of the total capital. In this case the trader is secured from investment of the extra assets to the one deal, which can lead to the downfall.

3. The risk rate for each market should not exceed 5% of the total capital invested by trader. In such way if the deal turns out be unprofitable, then the trader is ready to lose no more than 5% of the total assets sum. 5% is a value brought by Murphy, however, for example, Elder gives a value 1,5% - 2%.

4. The total sum of the guarantee fees, depositing at position opening at one market group, should be no more than 20% - 25% of the total capital. The markets, which compose one group, move more or less similar. Working at Forex four major markets can be determined, inside of which the movement of the currency rates is almost the same: the dollar area, the sterling area, the yen area and the euro area.

5. Degree determination of the portfolio diversification.

Diversification is one of the ways to secure a capital; for all that the variety must have limits. It is always needed the sensible compromise between diversification and concentration. You can more or less securely distribute assets by opening positions at the same time at 4 or 6 markets of the different groups – but no more. The larger importance of the negative correlation, existing between markets, the higher is diversification of the invested assets.




6. Determination of the stop-loss levels. The value of the stop-loss, at first, depends on how much trader is ready to lose at one deal, and, secondly, depends on traders’ assessment of the situation at market. Suppose that trader has the dollar deposit in amount of S. At the position’s opening trader concedes the losses in amount of L% of the deposit sum.

Suppose the contract for 100 000 was opened by the buying of the USD against the Swiss franc (CHF), with that the cost of the opening was p1. Buy USD 100 000; Sell CHF p1 x 100 000. At what p2 level trader has to set the selling order, for the purpose not to exceed the level of the allowable losses SxL?

If your order at p2 level has worked out, then the loss of the position would be: Loss – CHF (p1 – p2) x 100 000. On the other hand the loss should not exceed the USD SxL, or in the Swiss franc (CHF) SxLxp2. Consequently, we have: (p1-p2)x100,000 SxLxp2, there we have the following formula for the order’s level: p2 p1-p1 xSxL (SxL+100,000).

It should be noted that at determination of the stop-order it is needed for trader to rely upon the reasonable combination of the technical factors, displayed at the price chart, and own considerations concerning secure of funds. More changeable market, more removed should be the stop-loss levels from the current price level.

It is a trader’s benefit to set a stop-loss. At the same moment the extra “hard” stop-orders can lead to the undesirable position closing at the short-term price fluctuations (“noises”). Very remote stop-orders are not “noises”-sensible, but can lead to significant losses.

7. The determination of the ratio between potential profit and losses. For each potential deal the profit rate is determined. Such rate should be well-balanced with potential loss in case the market is going in undesirable direction. Usually such ratio is settled as 3 to 1. Otherwise, you should to refuse the entrance to the market. For example, if a trader supposes that margin will be $100, then the potential use should be $300.

Because the comparatively small number of deals during the year can make a considerable profit, it is necessary to try to maximize the profit, remaining the profitable positions as long as possible. Otherwise, it is needed to minimize the losses at bad deals.

8. The trading with several positions. Entering the market with several contracts (i.e. trend positions are executed with rather liberal stop-orders, which allow keeping safe these positions in the conditions of consolidation and prices correction. These positions give trader a possibility to make a greater profit. The trading positions are meant for the short-term trading and are limited by the strict stop-orders. In this case at the achievement of the certain price guideposts they are closed, and at the tendency’s resumption are recovered).

9. Conservative and aggressive trading approaches. The most part of analysts prefer the conservative approach. For example, Teweles J. Richard, Charles V. Harlow and Herbert L. Stone in their book “The Commodity Futures Game” wrote: “… Murphy is held to the same opinion: “…The trader is gambling aggressively when strives to make money promptly. The profits are significant, but only at time when market is moving fast in the favorable direction. When the state of the market is changing, the aggressive strategy as a rule is leading to the failure”.

10. Rules of the position opening: a) open the positions only at the presence of the one major and at least one additional signal; b) at the opening, by all means, form and write down: the price at the entrance the market; the price at which you will close the profitable position; the price at which you will close the loss-making position and the estimated time of the position’s closing.



11. Support rules for position and partial closing till the estimated time: a) support the positions only in case if the analysis confirms the conclusion made earlier; b) partly close positions: at receiving losses above supposed; if the price achieved the supposed rate for profit making; c) wait: at receiving losses below supposed; if the price is at the same level; if the price did not achieve the supposed rate for the profit making.

12. Rules for position closing: - after the expiry of an estimated time; - at the receiving of the supposed profit; - at the receiving of the supposed losses; - at the achievement of the profit’s maximum.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Money_Management
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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Tue Aug 16, 2011 1:11 pm

Very Short Term Strategy

The perfect strategy for beginning traders but it quickly leads them to the total smashup. Seduction of short-term rates quotations in amount of several points leads to trader starting “catching points”, 1-5. Success for several times, he/she earns 20-40 points. Then there is movement against trader’s position and he/she quickly starts suffer losses. According to this reason, such work requires very fast decisions in conditions of huge psychological tension and for a short period of time which is really possible only for experienced traders; newbie just observes how his/her deposit is vanishing. So for the beginning, it can be recommended to use medium-term working strategy with stepwise implementation of advantages of first and one before the last strategy when there is slack or sideward trends. It should be mentioned that “it is better not to do anything than do something”. You should not order just on the basis of your desire to do, which is often provoked by long inaction. Every deal should be based upon the reason – fundamental or technical.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Very-short-term_strategy
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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Wed Aug 17, 2011 1:13 pm

Scalping (Strategy)

This article is devoted to such trading strategy as scalping. (I do not recommend using this strategy because the possibility of losing the deposit is quite big). There is no definite opinion about this trading approach, but scalping was interesting and will be interesting. Why does scalping arouse such interest? Probably, because it is one of a few methods allowing to earn quickly at Forex.

The main idea of scalping is earning on intraday price movements.

Intraday trading appeared along with first stock exchanges. What can be easier, buy something cheap in the morning when stocks open, and at the end of the day sell it at higher price. From the beginning, intraday trading was available only for stocks members, because it was necessary to be there for quick deals execution. But technological advancement did not stand still. Telegraph, then telephone appeared. Necessity of presence at the stock exchange vanished and, as a consequence, the number of traders dealing with short-term speculations started increasing. Telegraph provided stock quotations and telephone became a way of sending requests to broker. Such trading was popular until computers and computer networks were invented.

After the Internet appearance trading at different markets, stock exchanges, Forex became available for everyone. And along with trading terminals’ development transmitting quotations right to the screen and allowing execution instantly, intraday trading got the second breath.

Forex market fits scalping in the best possible way. Why, you may ask? It is possible to trade at Forex with amounts, 100-500 times exceeding the deposit which allows making significant profit. Plus, Forex market has the greatest volatility. On average, currencies make 50-100 points during the day. However, this can be calculated if we take into consideration the price of day opening and the price of day closing. But if we take into account that currency rates do not constantly grow or fall within the day but make insignificant fluctuations, it will be at the end that currency moves for much more points for a day.

Scalpers’ task is to earn on every micro movement. During the day some traders make more than 100 deals, the period of such positions’ life in this way is about several minutes. For these several minutes Forex market makes movement in the correct direction by several pips, which scalper takes as a profit after closing the position. Of course, profit by such positions separately is small, but it can reach significant amount in total.

Deals are not always profitable and if the market moved in the opposite direction, the position should be quickly closed with out any regrets, otherwise, losses would be great.

The rules of classic scalping:

Scalping is a trading at ALL micro movement, exceeding double spread and allowance for slipping.

Scalper does not care about where market moves, the main thing is strong oscillators.

Strict risk-management – closing position by the smallest reverse. Profit fixation by the end of a day.

Telling straight, scalping strategy is rather complicated, but in spite of this, almost all newbies are trying to trade this way.

Let’s consider obvious disadvantages:

In scalping stop-loss level is very close to the market. Setting this level, the possibility of catch the loss just on market noise is very strong. The simplest decision is do not put stop-loss order, but then it can be enough one strong market movement against you to cancel out all your previous achievements and even to lose your deposit.

And probably, the main disadvantage is constant stress.

Scalping presupposes constant present at the market, and it means incessant stress. It is necessary to have strong nerves to be able to stand such trading conditions – there is no right to mistake. So if you trade for a long time in such conditions, most likely you will lose your deposit. And how long it takes is probably individual for everybody.

Progress does not stand still.

Along with development of the software, scalping with usage of different mechanical trading systems became more popular. Scalping slowly turns from daily monitoring the quotations at the screen into the writing and constant refining of the program which works during the whole trading session and collect the pennies at every tick. My opinion: mechanic trading system for scalping cannot be written, because trader’s intuition plays one of major parts in this strategy. But program can make the work easier. It is just my opinion; I think you have your own.

At the end of the article I want to cite a passage from the interview of famous scalper Paramon:

“Scalping for me is trading method complies with my psychomotor system. As well as other strategies it has its advantages and disadvantages. For example, in long-term trading we get much free time, we do not have it in scalping; using scalping it is necessary to work the whole trading day and by the end of trades you feel exhaustion, but from other point of view, scalper can earn much more than medium- or long-term trader. Moreover, the process of price movement is always in front of your eyes and you can always quickly react on any market changes and just this very tiresome trading allow you gaining invaluable experience. You start to understand the price movement of some currency pairs, start feeling and predicting”.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Scalping_(strategy)
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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:45 pm

Swing Trading

The purpose of swing-trading is taking profit in long-term prospects. This is the main difference of this tactics from intraday ones. With the help of swing-trading profit is made of 3-5 days time frames. The majority of the most successful traders of the world use exactly this strategy.

From the very beginning we have to understand the determination of trends. Market movement is characterized by chain of fluctuations. If every forthcoming maximum is higher than the previous one, and every forthcoming minimum is higher than the previous one, then there is up-going trend, or, as it is called, “rally” or “uptrend”. If market makes down-going movement, where every next maximum is lower than the previous one and minimum is lower than preceding one, then it is down-going trend, “downtrend”.

Meanwhile, smooth currency rate changing is not really a trend yet. Dynamics shows three conditions of currency market at once: accumulation – stage where those people work who can afford to have the staff of analysts; trend and distribution. It is not recommended for private traders to pay attention to the accumulation stage – in this condition “smart money” comes into the market. “Smart money” leaves the market at the stage of distribution, instead of that “stupid money” appears.

We started narration about trends not accidentally. The main thing for swing-trading tactics is discipline, necessity to follow the trend accurately and do not even try to trade against it. Just following the main trend supports the impulse to traded currency pair rates to move in your direction. Currency dynamics holds the trend, until it changes under the pressure of fundamental driving forces. Unfortunately, traders, from force of habit, often do not follow this rule.

According to the Dow Theory, there are three trends at the market: long-term, intermediate and short-term. Long-term trend is used by traders who have investment purposes. This trend is identified on weekly, monthly and quarter charts. Day traders work with short-term trends which can be seen on hour charts. To work at Forex market, it is necessary to choose one trend. The main thing is to understand what trend is and how to identify it.

Just in “core-movement” condition, i.e. in trend, it is better to work at Forex market. After all, trend has two peculiarities useful for us – it is determined easily and changed difficultly.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Swing-trading
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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:10 pm

The average daily trading strategy on the EURJPY pair.

The average daily trading strategy consists in the special steps before the settlement, these steps are the analysis, the special goals setting, the placing of orders, and settlement of transaction. The feature of such strategy is that the deal depends on the carried out analysis, and after bargaining there is no need to be in front of the terminal and follow the minimal price fluctuations.

This very positively reflects the trader’s health, the Forex market is liquid and high-yield, but at well-being of one, another is in minus, in this way the risk of the capital loss is very high. The average daily trading saves from the excess experiences. The existing period of the opened positions is from one to several days, and sometimes there are special cases of longevity, when the deal takes several weeks. Very often such thing happens on the pairs with low volatility.

The very convenient tool for the average daily trading strategy is the EUR/JPY pair. The pipe-line for the deal, its settlement and time of waiting are very engrossing. Before making a deal on the EUR/JPY pair it is necessary to analyze the market (the interfacing tools on the euro and the yen), in order not to mistake with character. The course falling during several days does not mean that the market takes form of bearish, because the reason for reduction can be correction or the entering of the large investor, the deals values of which move the price. As a rule, the purchase/sale of the currency in large values takes not one operation, but by options, this creates the deceptive mood for which a lot of traders join, generally pipsers. The examples of such deals can be observed very often, only at August 2008, on the EUR/JPY pair there were about 4 situations. Of course, for those who work during the day, they have become an excellent opportunity, but for the average daily trading it was a false signal, the changes were about 150-200 points, that is quite enough for the stop-loss response on this pair. The average positions, which should be chosen on this tool, are the following: the value of a deal should not overcome 20-30% of the deposit, at that the orders should be set in the area of 100 points, if you are ready to lose 20-30% of your deposit or less. For the EUR/JPY pair 100 points is a good size, though a lot of traders prefer to limit their losses at 50 points, and to be satisfied with the profit of 15-20 pips. In this case for June-August 2008 the losses have exceeded the profit. The changes of the bullish market for June were 600 points; the corridor of July was about 200 points, with the breaches in both sides, and August difference was 800 points. That is why taking into account the trend, the stop order should be set at 80-100 points, and the profit no less than 50 points, at the positive forecasts it can be more.

Before to make a deal determine the direction of the market, listen the forecasts of the analysts for the next time, if it is possible determine the cause of the price change, it can be economically sound, for example the limitation/increase of the import/export part, for stabilization of economic indices. If in the expected period of a deal, there should not be any events, for example reports or statements, then you can make a deal, in this case the suddenness can be only force-majeure circumstances.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Average_daily_trading_strategy_on_the_EURJPY_pair

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Sat Aug 20, 2011 2:28 pm

Akhir pekan kembali datang, kita lanjutkan pelajaran :

Medium Term Trading

Medium-term trading is a trading at medium-term time frames from several days to 1-2 months. The advantage of the medium-term strategy is that you can successfully trade and at the same time to go about your business. This strategy is perceived better than the short-term strategy. All intraday noises are filtered and the main forecast is made for perspective. Time is money. The theoretical possibility of the medium-term strategy is based on statement about “long memory” of market, i.e. the formed support and resistance levels at the given moment work long enough. At that the medium-term fluctuation channel on major currency pairs can be from 150 to 400 points. It is recommended to open positions not less than 30 points higher (lower) channel’s levels, and stop-loss order not less than 50 points. The medium-term strategy gives an opportunity to make significant profits, however, only at presence of possibility to remain the open position during several days at least.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Medium-term_trading

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:20 am

Selamat berlibur, semoga menyenangkan. Kembali materi trading saya sampaikan :

Chaos Theory

The traders have different strategies in order to achieve success in financial speculations. Sometimes they use methods similar to casino game, or neglect risk management, or throw themselves into mathematics in search of regularities of, it should seem, completely erratic market behavior. However, curiously enough, wherever the searches of knowledge will go, in most cases it leads to new discoveries.

Bill Williams can be considered as the founder of the Chaos Theory; he was the first who suggested to use fractals in trading. The fractals are some geometrical formations, the main feature of which is self-similarity, i.e. from the small elements is constructed more large-scale structure, which duplicates the form of the smaller formations. The theory states that in particular at this feature of similarity all elements of the nature are organized from the riverbed, to the human brain.

How the fractals can be useful in trading?! Very often it can be noticed that some figures at charts appear with constant regularity in a greater or lesser degree. In such way, it can be made a conclusion, that after a while the market repeats its movements similar to already existing elements. If to determine such figures, then the forecasts can be made with a closer approximation, and, therefore, used in one’s discretion. Bill Williams suggested to determine the Forex-fractal, as several candles, one of which will be the local minimum or maximum in the presented time scale. For simplicity, he made an indicator, which became the highly popular and now is a standard for trading terminal MetaTrader4.

Today the Chaos Theory developed so greatly, that it went well away from the initial idea of Bill Williams. The main point has remained the same, the search of the self-similar figures at charts for prices’ forecasting. The modern Fractal Theory is such that traders search not the fractals, but the monads, a little bit bigger formations, than five-six candles based on self-similarity. Besides, a Mirror Theory, the branch of the Fractal Theory, made a long way, testifying that the market, at achievement of some points, reflects itself as in the mirror. Examples, which are made by the market, amaze, how the forecast can be true, built on such theory. Moreover, the adherents of the mirror markets say that even unpredicted events of the fundamental character have been already took into account by the market. The thematic example is an act of terrorism in London: before it the currency chart does not show any technical backgrounds for a big movement, but the mirror indicators pointed to the strong impulse, which has happened with the help of terrorists.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Chaos_Theory

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:28 pm

Mari kita lanjutkan materi kita hari ini masih mengenai Strategi Trading :

Trading the News

So called “trading the news” represents one of the trading methods, which is based on the idea that news move the market. The release of positive news brings the quotations’ increase, and the release of negative news causes the reduction. Under such approach any factors which influence the company value, are considered as NEWS about these factors. For example, the improvement of the company’s finance indicators (the fundamental indicator, which is a part of the market analysis) is considered as positive news about advancing of this company’s finance indicators.

The famous speculation of Baron Nathan Rothschild concerning the Battle of Waterloo is a one of the most perfect examples of the Trading the News in the history. In due time, Nathan Rothschild was famous at the London Stock Exchange as a man, which has the access to the most current information. Such opinion had lead to the fact that very often his actions influence the behavior of other stock gamblers.

On 20 July, 1815 Nathan Rothschild received news, about the victory over Napoleon in the Battle of Waterloo, long before the arrival of the official representative of the Duke Wellington (this happened by virtue of Rothschild’s perfectly organized messenger service).

Having noted this fact, Rothschild went to the London Stock Exchange, where started to sell the securities. The result of these actions became a rumor about Englishmen failure that caused panic at exchange. When the rate of securities fell to the record low level, these securities were bought by Rothschild that gained him a great capital.

In such way the Battle of Waterloo besides the books on the art of war, also became a history of the greatest financial operations.

The public at large, which is always differed by inclination to diabolize such personalities, up to now is seriously discuss the possibility that the Napoleonic Marshal Grouchy was late to the battle place only because of Rothschild money.

However, not everything is so simple. Enough often the fund market paradoxically responds the news and, for the outsider it is rather unexplainable. Something strange appears, and prices suddenly start to fall, or vice versa.

The thing is that the direct influence on market has only unexpected news.

Definitely that the released news about revolution in some state, in this connection tomorrow is planed the cancellation of all shares, will lead to the failure of the exchange. Either, for example, the sudden improvement of the financial indicators of some company is good news, which certainly will cause the price advance for shares of this company. However, these two examples are the examples of unexpected news, which surprise the market participants.

The absolute majority of news, influencing the market, represents the preplanned reports, macroeconomic data or already announced statements of the official persons. The professionals concerning such news have a saying “Buy rumors and expectations, but sell facts”. At first sight right here is a secret of the strange market behavior, the market grows, while all expect the release of positive news, but falls, as soon as it really releases. However, before falling there is one short upward move.

The reasons for such situation are the following. The thing is that major market participants (let name them “professionals”), opening and closing of the position for which take several weeks, or months, are unable to sell their holding of shares at the decreasing market, because this will lead to the quotations’ collapse. In this connection they plan to close positions exactly at the moment of the expected positive news release.

Let discuss this situation at the following example. Suppose, that respected newspaper “Everything will be good!” at its head page published the next news: “Bingo! Russia finally joined the WTO! Now everything will be perfect, and corporations’ incomes will increase by 100 billions at least!” There is a large article below, which describes the bright outlooks for everybody. Of course, the first and only market participant’s reaction will be the wish to buy immediately, and a lot of “non-professionals” will do it, for which the fact that Russia joined the WTO turned out to be a surprise. However, at the exchange there are already large holding of shares, which were previously bought by the “professionals”. In such situation everything depends on the amount of which will be bigger, “fresh” money or shares. The quotations either will rise, or decrease, but in 90% of cases it should be expected its reduction.

Let summarize everything said above.

All news can be subdivided into “expected” and “unexpected”, the first of them are won back on the principle of “Buy the rumor – sell the fact”, whereas “sudden” news are won back in direct relation from the part of news action.

As we have said above, the most part of fund market news can be referred to the “expected”. In this way, the deals, which are connected with company merger in the most cases, are prepared for a long period of time. The negotiations on these transactions can continue for several months; moreover, a lot of people are involved. In such situations, of course, the information leakage almost can not be prevented and this information, taking the form of rumors, gets abroad the market long before the official release of the news. Among “expected” news are positive and negative companies’ reports, bond placement, announcements about mergers, signing of the large profitable contracts, etc.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Trading_the_News

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:31 pm

Pullback Trading

As a rule the market is subdivided into several large groups, each of them prefer its own trading methods. It is hard to say what the exact representatives’ ratio of one or another method is. However, we think that adherents of the pullback trading take the most part of the market, despite the fact that this is a high risky strategy.

Pullbacks are the inevitable event, because the market can not be constantly in the increase or decrease phase. The growth should be necessarily attended by falling or vice versa. In order to determine the place at the chart, where the possible pullback can take place, it is necessary to analyze the market carefully with the help of different elements. In this case the classical technical analysis with its variety of any possible elements will come to help.

As you can see the problem is rather deep. Because for development and usage some trading method it is needed to know the analysis methods reasonably. In case of the market analysis with the use of pullback trading strategy, it is necessary to chose well the definite elements of the technical analysis, as well as the correct parameter setting of these elements.

The problem of the pullback theory is that any reversal against the current trend can be interpreted by trader as pullback. However, actually there can be a tendency’s reversal; in this case the determination borders are rather transparent. Everything depends on your individual approach.

The most simple and effective strategy of the pullback trading is the buying near the support level. Your own lines, as well as moving averages can be used as such support level. Moreover, the one moving average or their combination can be used. The moving average as well as support levels work good as applied to this strategy that is why there is no difference between their usages. The question is what period can be set for moving average.

If to look at this question more closely, then, certainly, each trader achieves to make a bigger profit. However, the thing is that for achievement of a big profit the trader should gamble at the long-terms time frame. Firstly, this will give an opportunity to have more trust in the support line, and, secondly, will make possible to gain a big profits. If so, then the strategy on more long time frames deserves more attention, therefore, at the parameters’ determination of the moving averages it is recommended to follow the values from 50 and higher. For each currency pair it is needed to chose its own value for the moving averages.

Now let discuss the simple strategy, based on the usage of pullbacks.

The first thing which we should do is to set up the correspondence between daily and weekly chart. Take the chart of some currency pair and specify trend’s direction in accordance with moving averages. The parameters of the moving averages should be set up, taking into account the features of one or another currency pair. Suppose, their will be 50, 100 and 200. Besides, build the support and resistance levels.

Secondly, it is necessary to correlate the weekly trend with the daily. Very often traders use in this trading strategy Fibonacci recovery levels. This gives an opportunity to determine the covert support level in the case of price’s pullback. However, the problem is that in spite of method’s simplicity this approach is rather difficult and trading with usage of this theory considerably complicates.

The difficulty is that it is necessary to determine correctly the recovery level. That is why the special attention should be given to the determination of the present level. As a rule more deep recovery lines deserve a greater confidence, in this connection for a safer trading it is recommended to follow 62% recovery level. Using this level, it is necessary to correspond it with moving averages, which should be in the area of this level.

Thirdly, by all means use for the analysis the additional elements of the technical analysis. As applied to this strategy the RSI and Stochastic indicators can be used. In the case of price’s pullback till the support level it is recommended to take into account the values of these indicators. If the indicator’s line is at the present time in the overbought area, that will be a good signal, preventing the soon reversal. Besides, at the situation’s analysis the candle analysis works well. The Japanese candles are meant. The bullish candle at the supposed low point of the pullback also gives significance for this signal.

Fourthly, the position opening should be made at the same values of all elements. The price has to achieve the support level, the Stochastic at the same time should go out the overbought area, and at the supposed area of reversal should appear the bullish candle. As a rule, it is more efficient to open the position when you will be sure in presence of the confirming our assumption of the candle, i.e. in this case – the bullish candle.

The present trading strategy found its own adherents. Its advantage is that it works well both with upward and downward trend. One more factor, at which this strategy is used, is the analysis of the long-term time charts. Of course we do not assure you that the present strategy is absolutely ineffective at the short-term time frames, however, the most part of traders use it as applied to the long-term period of time. Anyway, if you want to use this strategy at the intraday trading, then your goal will be the search of the effective parameters, for which it will be needed to set all used elements.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Pullback_Trading

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Wed Aug 24, 2011 3:24 pm

Breakout Trading
Breakout trading means the purchase of the market instrument after it moved higher than specific price level (for the sale vice versa). The breakouts can happen at any time format. The five minutes and fifteen minutes charts are popular for the intraday dealers, trading the breakouts. The period of position maintaining varies from several seconds (breakout scalping) till the end of the day.

The significant reductions change to extensive foundations, characterizing by unsuccessful rally and repeated testing of the previous bottoms. The nature of the market tool changes, because new consolidation slowly shakes the previous mass of losers. The prices are pushed to the peak of the key resistance. The short-term relative force is improving and the chart forms a number of the bullish price bars with the closing levels near their maximums. Finally the movement starts the steady breakout through the wall, determined by the previous unsuccessful efforts.

The market tool has to overcome the force of attraction, in order to enter new upward trend. The gamblers, low price oriented, built the foundation for the increase, but can not provide the critical force, which is necessary to give the acceleration for the next rally. Fortunately, the mass, chasing the impulse, will come just in time, in order to close this gap. Since the market tool is slowly going higher than the resistance, the greed attracts traders, gambling the growth, and these gamblers start trading at one moment.

The gap occurrence at the breakout has an enormous potential for the purchase. However, the skilful trader should to exercise caution, if the movement does not accompany with large value. The fix of customers’ enthusiasm should attract the great attention, which provides the further price movement. When the value is unable to show the increase, the gap can be filled very quickly, and to trap the emotional customer.

In the absence of the gap, the waves of the large value provide the comfortable price tier, similar to the gap. However, the support can be more difficult for the measuring. Moreover, for the impulse development more time can be required, forcing the price to fluctuate in new range, instead of to rise quickly. Fortunately this scenario also makes an opportunity for pullback trading, because the support causes the advantageous strong movements.

The upward trend faces the predicted barriers, marked by the consolidations of the previous downward trend. These barriers cause frequent decreases, which provide good opportunities for purchase. Trader should determine in advance these advantageous areas, but also to understand that reductions will disappear during intense rally. In this case the price breakout is going through the previous breakout, because the customers’ enthusiasm is growing.

During the upward trend, the goal is to determine the target of the guaranteed movement. Since the trend is creating impulse, then gaps, which have waves, as well as the gaps, which do not have waves, will be displayed at the technical indicators, such as the MACD and the ADX. The short pullbacks should not disturb the estimation of this developing force. The stronger rally should breakout because the volatility absorbs each wave. During these events the price range and the value will expand from the bar to bar, often achieving the high point in the second gap (continuation gap) and at the final peak of the drain.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Breakout_trading

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Thu Aug 25, 2011 1:40 pm

Hedging as a Strategy

Hedging is an insurance against the risk of price changes by means of holding the opposite position at the parallel market. Hedging gives an opportunity to secure yourself from the possible losses by the time of forward deal settlement; provides the raise of the commercial transactions flexibility and efficiency; provides the cost cutting for the trade financing by the real commodities; allows to reduce risks of the sides: the losses from the commodities price changes are balanced out by the profit on futures.

As a rule, losses stop their development upon reaching the stop-loss, or in the case, the price reversed and went to the appropriate side. These variants are well known for everybody, and there is no point to consider them. The thing is that the person who does not use the Money Management is overrating his/her abilities at least, but the trader who does not use a risk-management always attacks, but he/she can not defend!

Hedging at Forex is an obligatory element of the protection against the risks and following the position for the purpose to make profit from them. The simple example: you have opened the sell position, basing on the MACD indicator of the EURUSD tool. Further you have received profit for three times , but now the price is going upward and your losses have not been reducing for more than twenty four hours. Here we have the situation for the hedging, but how to do it correctly? The mathematic and analysis will help us to do this.

The position locking is also a well-known tool and is at least ineffective, and furthermore is a self-deception; moreover this lock is always with a negative swap, because the positive swap on the pair is less than negative one. As a result, this action differs a little from the position reversal in reliance on movement’s continuation, and then for its full return to the first position’s point.

Thus, the reason for any losses is an unpredicted currency’s movement (we are talking here about the currency market). In particular, the currency’s movement and not the currency pair move! If you see at other charts that the reason for losses on the sell position of the EURUSD pair is consisting in the dollar reduction, then it is more likely to earn on this situation by the assets transfer to the other currency pair without the US dollar. To do this, it is necessary to determine the following:

1) The pair or pairs which are correlating well with the EURUSD pair.

2) This tool/these tools should be more volatile than the first one in order to the profit outgoes the losses.

3) To open the opposite position/positions on the US dollar. BUT!!! In equal shares.

It can be important, because the EURUSD lot is not equal the GBPUSD one. Here is a price difference for a point (for example, for the USDJPY pair) and for the volatility of one or another pair. These factors should be taken into account for the effective transfer of the position for the other pair. In other way, the disagreements can become too serious, because the initial balance is important for us, and only after it - the advance on the increment in profit against the losses. The further goal is to achieve the “swing” effect after rally ends, making losses on the EURUSD pair and outrun the profit on the GBPUSD. After the strong movement the period of consolidation is started and at a given moment the loss on the first pair is additionally reducing. At that moment you have great chances to come out of the position with profit, and if the total swaps are positive, which is also important, that will give you the additional support. In fact, the present method can be used for transfer of the invested assets to the EURGDP pair. The simple example of two pairs was discussed here, however, there can be used more complicated combinations with the usage of additional currency pairs for achievement of better results according to the portfolio closing facts.

In order to determine the correlation score the algorithm on the formula of the simple correlation is usually used, which you can find in the attachment along with the indicator for MT4, where it is realized to the full. It also can be noted that hedging methods are extremely various, because even in this example the pairs without major currencies could be used, but at that the spread on profit/loss could be higher. The most important thing in hedging is the achievement of the needed balance, by means of assets diversification.

Types of hedging.

Classical hedging

Classical hedging is a hedging by means of holding the opposite positions at the market. The first type of hedging was used by the dealers of the farm products in Chicago (USA).

Full and partial hedging

Full hedging supposes the insurance against risks for the whole sum of the deal. The present type of hedging completely excludes the possible losses, connected with price risks. The partial hedging is insuring only the part of the real deal.

Anticipative hedging

Anticipative hedging supposes the purchase or sale long before the settlement at the spot market. At the period between making the deal at the time market and the settlement at the spot market, the futures contract is as the substitute of the real commodities' delivery contract. Also the anticipative hedging can be used by the means of purchase or sale of the urgent deliverables and its further execution through the stock. The present type of hedging is the most popular at the stock market.

Selective hedging

Selective hedging is characterized by the fact that deals at the futures market and spot market vary in the volume and transaction time.

Cross hedging

Cross hedging is defined by the fact that a deal with contract not for the underlying asset of the spot market is executed at the futures market, but for other financial instrument. For example, there is a deal with a share at the real market, but at the futures market - with futures for the stock index.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Hedging_as_a_strategy

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:52 pm

Selamat siang agan-agan WDC, sekarang kita bicara mengenai makro ekonomi indikator. Hal ini berkaitan dengan fundamental suatu negara. Mari kita simak pelan-pelan, gunakan bantuan translate google.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Gross domestic product (GDP)

Gross domestic product – the GDP - is one of the major indexes of the System of National Accounts (SNA), which characterizes the final result of economic entities’ producing activity - residents, and measures the cost of goods and services, produced by these entities for the final use.

The GDP – is the main index, which reflects the condition of the national economy.

The GDP is an indicator of the manufactured product, which amounts to the cost of the produced final goods and services.

It means, that cost of the intermediate goods and services, used in the process of production (such, as raw materials, fabrics, fuel, energy, seeds, forage, freight transport services , wholesale prices, commercial and financial services etc.) is not included into the GDP.

Otherwise, the GDP would contain a repeated account. Besides, the GDP is a domestic product, because it is produced by residents.

The residents are all economic entities (the enterprises and private households), irrespective of their national identity and citizenship, which have the economic interest centre within the economic territory of the country.


It denotes that they are involved in productive activity, or reside on the economic territory of the country for a long time (not less than one year).

The economic territory of the country is the territory, administratively ruled by the government of the country, within which the people, the goods and money can move freely.

Unlike geographical territory, it includes no territorial enclaves of other countries (embassies, military bases, etc.), but includes these country’s enclaves, situated on the territory of other countries.

And finally, the GDP is a gross product, because it is calculated from a deduction of the fixed capital consumption.

Fixed capital consumption is a reduction of a fixed capital cost during the reporting period, in the result of its physical damage, obsolescence or accidental damages with no catastrophic character.


Theoretically, the GRP should be determined on the pure basis, i.e. with the deduction of the fixed capital consumption.

However, for the counting of the fixed capital consumption, according to principles of SNA, special calculations on the data about reinstatement value of the key assets, their durability and amortization on all kinds of key assets, are required.

Amortization on the accounting data does not suit this aim.

Not all countries make such calculations, and those, which make, use different methods.

Thus, the data about the GDP is more open and comparable between countries, and consequently, the index GDP has a wider distribution, than the Net Domestic Product.

The Gross Domestic Product is a long name; therefore, it is usually used in abbreviated form –the GDP.

The GDP is a form of the National Income and Product Accounts, which is an official name of the GDP –report, and an attempt to make the detailed account of the final demand.

The basic form of measurement is a percentage change on year in reliance on a quarter, and it calculates the GDP increase year- on-year – annual growth rate.

In detailed official reports, it is also possible to find the data on absolute value of the USA GDP, showed in billions of the US dollars. The GDP report can be presented in 2 estimations of GDP, which should be equal: the 1st one is based on the final demand categories, the 2nd one is based on the determination of income.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Product

Personal consumption expenditures

Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Gross Private Domestic Investment

Fixed Investment Nonresidential Structures Producers' Durable Equipment Residential Change in Inventories

Nonfarm Farm Net Export of Goods Export -Import

Government Purchases

Federal National Defense Nondefense (State and Local)


Income

Compensation of Employees

Wages and Salaries Supplement to Wages and Salaries Proprietors' Income (with Adjustments)

Farm Nonfarm Rental Income of Persons (with Adjustment)

Corporate Profits (with Adjustment)

Profits before Taxes Inventory Valuation Adjustment Capital Consumption Adjustment Net Interest Miscellaneous Adjustments

Net National Product Adjustments Depreciation Adjustments Net Receipts of Factor Income Adjustment


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Often the “GDP” can be replaced by an indicator “real GDP”:

Real GDP = Final Sales + Inventories

Where: Inventories = Normal Inventories Final Sales = Consumption + Producers Durable Equipment + Nonresidential Structurers + Residential Structurers + Federal Government Spending + State&Local Government Spending + Export - Import

The report is released at 8.30 a.m. Washington time or at 16.30 Moscow time, usually on the 20th business day of the month, following the accounting period, The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the USA for the prior quarter. Besides, the data is published every month: initially – the preliminary data, and then the revised report.

Interconnection with other indexes.

The GDP is the final indicator of the economic state, and it makes sense to consider first of all the indexes, which influence the GDP.

It includes the manufacturing output, personal incomes and expenditures, construction expenses and other indexes, which, as you have understood, concern structural constituents of the GDP one way or another. The GDP has a significant influence on share indexes and the Central Bank’s and Governmental monetary policy. On this basis, its influence on exchange rates is determined, which is as much fundamental, as diffused in time. The index affects the market greatly. The GDP growth causes the increase of the national currency rate.

The index behaviour peculiarities.

A strong growth in real domestic consumption and a weak growth of the GDP can denote, that the import takes the largest part of the demand for itself. This results in a question: if the market participants, responsible for the economic policy, are satisfied with variations of the foreign dollar exchange rate. The growth is determined by social or long-term factors, such as demography, the end of the Cold war etc., and by periodic factors, such as, time interruptions in rise because of shocks, disproportions in economy and other.

There is an important dependence between the rate of unemployment and the growth of the real GDP: the real GDP should increase by 2,2 %, so that the unemployment remained unchanged. If the GDP grows from this threshold by 1 %, the unemployment rate will decrease by 0,1 % in a quarter, and in reverse.

It is necessary to consider the significant calculating index – the potential real GDP. This is the maximum achievable level of production, which could be manufactured without inflation pressure increase. In this case, the non-accelerating inflationary unemployment rate should be about 5,5 %. When the real unemployment rate becomes less, it may result in inflation.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Gross_domestic_product_(GDP)

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Sat Aug 27, 2011 2:56 pm

Money Supply

Money Supply is the total amount of issued paper money and coins in circulation, as well as funds on the current accounts in the banks. In statistics reports the sum of cash recourses is often singled out separately from the total amount of money supply in turnover.

The notions of monetary aggregates

The values of Money Supply (M0, M1, M2, M3, and M4) are the important macroeconomic indicators. In fact, with their help the total money supply of the country can be measured.

The money aggregate M0 characterizes the total cash resources in circulation of the investigated country.

M1 = M0 + the checkable deposits, i.e. it includes the most liquid recourses: cash currency, demand deposits, and traveler’s cheques.

M2 = M1 + time deposits, deposits up to $100,000, i.e. it includes М1, time deposits (less than $100,000) and other highly liquid savings.

M3 = M2 + large time deposits and deposits more than $100,000.

M4 – is a summary monetary aggregate.

In the USA, the indicators М1, М2, М3 are published at 16:30 EST (NY) on Thursdays every week, characterizing the weekly change of the money supply. The most relevant for the Americans is M2, which remains as one of the leading indicators index components, calculated by Conference Board.

For the majority of European countries, the monetary aggregate M3 is the traditionally most significant, for Great Britain- M4.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Money_supply

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Sun Aug 28, 2011 1:37 am

selamat malam pokoke...
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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Sun Aug 28, 2011 10:49 am

sacho_eka wrote:
selamat malam pokoke...
Sip, siang gan. Mari sama-sama belajar.

Business index ISM

The ISM index (the Institute of Supply Management index, former NAPM – National Association of Purchasing Managers)

Indicator of the Institute for Supply Management Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply). Till January 2002 it had the name NAPM – National Association of Purchasing Management.

The ISM index value above 50 is usually considered as indicator of production activity level’s increase, and less than 50 – as falling. As a rule, when the ISM value is approaching 60, investors become nervous about probable overheat of the economy, inflation’s upturn and relevant measures (interest rates’ raising) by the Federal Reserve bank. When the value falls down till 40, there are talks about the recession. Recently, investors pay attention not only to the composite index (see “Calculation method”), but also to the individual components such as employment and price paid. So the ISM index is released right before unemployment data publication and is often used for Bureau of Labor Statistics data refinement.

The Index is calculated on the basis of five components which have the following specific values: New Orders (30%) Production (25%), Employment (20%), Supplier Deliveries (15%), Inventories (10%). Respondents to a survey are asked about the results of production activity. Formal answers are confined by the accounts “higher” (more), “lower” (less) or “no changes” in comparison with the previous month. A respondent may also add his/her own comments. Each component of the report compiles in the diffusion index, which is calculated as a sum of simple percentage change of “higher” and “lower” plus the half of answers “the same” or “no changes”. The diffusion index, which is a result indicator, is called Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Its value can fluctuate between 0 and 100% with different characteristics of diapasons: 50% means absence of any changes; above 50% - improvement; and less that 50% - reduction.

Influence on the stock market: if, recently, companies’ activities were profitable and the interest rates have kept at rather low levels, increase of the diffusion index would probably be considered as a signal of market growth. If other indicators show forthcoming end of the business cycle – overheat, inflation, interest rates’ increase – the ISM index upturn can become a strong signal to the mass selling of shares.

Periodicity of release: it is published at 15:00 (GMT + 00) on the first working day of a month which follows after the reporting month.

Source: the Institute for Supply Management.

Incidence on the market: middle.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Business_index_ISM

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Mon Aug 29, 2011 3:25 pm

Services PMI (purchasing managers' index)

Services PMI depicts the results of the services purchasing managers' questionnaire, made to estimate the changes in this field. Numbers, less than 45-50 indicate the slowing tempo of economic development. Frequently, the volume of this index is influenced by psychological factors rather than by the real situation. The services consumption process has a tendency to change at a relatively steady pace, that is why the psychological reasons, in particular, influence the sharp changes of this index. Therefore, it is paid special attention during the index analysis. Its rate is released on the first days of every month at 10:00 EST (NY), one day after the ISM index publication. It has restrained effects on the market. The growth of the index is a moving factor for the dollar rate uprise.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Services_PMI_(purchasing_managers%27_index)

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Tue Aug 30, 2011 3:38 pm

Consumer price index (CPI)

Consumer price index is usually reduced to CPI, another abbreviation is Core CPI which is used for such called “core” index excluding energy and food data. CPI tracks the average changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services, id est the price inflation of consumer goods on the set basket and it is a key indicator of inflation rate in the country. An absolute basket is measured by: CPI = [ 0.38 * (Housing prices2 - Housing prices1/ Housing prices1) + 0.19 * (Food chng.) + 0.08 (Fuel chng.) + 0.07* (auto chng.) + 0.28*others, but the headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term (CPI2 - CPI1).

Main product categories:

1.1. Food and beverages
2.2. Accommodation
3.3. Clothes and Services
4.4. Transport
5.5. Medical service
6.6. Entertainment
7.7. Other goods and services
For example:

1.1. Food, drink, tobacco
2.2. Clothing, shoes
3.3. Rents & energy - Of which: rents energy excl. fuel
4.4. Furniture, household goods
5.5. Health and body care goods
6.6. Traffic and news transmission
7.7. Education, leisure goods
8.8. Personal equipment, others

This report is published at 08:30 AM (EST) or at 16:30 (Moscow time) during the second part of the month, following the reported period, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the previous month. The data on consumer prices is the last report, characterizing the inflationary component in different branches of economy after the export and import pricing data and industrial prices report.

Correlation with other indicators. The CPI has an impact on long – term evaluation of purchasing power parity countrywide as well as on the FRS monetary policy setting the interest rates. The CPI increase usually leads to reduction of the genuine demand level and retail sales volume, but this is in midterm period. In short – term outlook, vice versa, prices upsurge reflects a high consumer activity. Such indicators as money supply (M2), industrial and import prices have influence on this index. The CPI is analyzed together with the PPI (Producer Price Index). If the economy develops in normal conditions, then the CPI and PPI advancement may lead to the main interest rates enhance in the country. This, in its turn, will be the result of the US dollar rate increasing, as the force of attraction to deposit money to the currency with larger interest rate escalates.

Peculiarities of this indicator policy. The major difference in the CPI structure is between goods and services. Goods come up nearly to 44.0% of the index and services – 56.0%. There are two rules for consideration of inflationary trends of two sectors.

The inflation of goods sector is more changeable, than the inflation of services one. The main reason is that goods or tradable sector depend heavily on food and energy prices. These two components occupy nearly a half of commodity element and prices changes are especially significant. The inflation of services sector is less changeable during the trade cycle and it is behind the inflation of goods. The highs and lows of prices advance for services are in arrears of prices fluctuations in goods sector for 6 months on average. When the CPI is published the market initially draws attention to month – on – month changes and to basic elements changing, which give the highest inflation rate (prices on energy and food). The annualized figures of the CPI growth cause less interest. As soon as the market gets the information about the “core” inflation as well as all statistics on food and energy, the attention will turn to any unexpected changes in these areas. It is necessary to pay attention to:

The inflationary movements in separate commodities groups, as they cause changes at the financial markets. The more are changes, the more significant they are. The behavior of any group of goods which inflationary movements may be the most solid and unexpected. When unpredictable changes come to the sector, for which they are unusual, then they are less powerful, than prices motions in the sector of the “core” inflation. It is needed to consider that separate components are interconnected, for example, energy is not summarily calculated, as it is included in many other services and tradable components, id est the double account should be have in mind. Firstly, you have to remember that the inflation has the own cycle which is behind the GDP growth cycle. That is why the review of average monthly changes of the CPI may misinform, as they are too similar at each period of trade cycle. This also refers to the core CPI. The core CPI value shows average and more correct data on the consumer prices cycle, than the total CPI. Historically high and low levels for the core CPI frequently correspond to the recessions and revivals periods and only in two out of ten cases they do not correspond to norms in the recovery phase.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Consumer_price_index_(CPI)

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Wed Aug 31, 2011 10:08 am

Producer price index (PPI)

Producer Price Index (PPI) determines the price-level changes for the “basket” of goods, produced in the industry. This index consists of two parts: entry prices (semi-products, components, etc.) and output prices (finished product). The output price includes the value of labor and gives an idea about the inflation, connected with change in value of labor. With index calculation the prices for the import goods and services are not took into account. When the producers pay more for the goods and services, they, probably, will carry the increase in the cost over the consumers, and that is why the PPI is considered as the leading indicator of the consumer inflation. This indicator influences the market significantly. Amid the expectations for rising of the basic interest rates the growth of the indicator’s value leads to the advance of the dollar rate.

Producer Price Index (PPI) rates the prices for goods at the wholesale level. There are three large sub-categories inside the PPI: initial, intermediate and final. The market very closely follows the index of the final goods, because this index reflects the prices for the goods, which are ready for sale to the end user. The prices for goods at the initial and intermediate stages of industry very often give the display of the up-coming inflationary (deflationary) pressure, but the closer are the initial goods, the stronger these prices correspond to the commodity prices, which are already available in the trading indices, such as the CRB (Commodity Research Bureau).

At all stages of industry the market gives a greater attention to the index, which excludes the food and energy resources, which is named as basic. The corresponding index is called as the CorePPI and published with the basic index. The food and energy prices are intended to be volatile and cover the tendencies of the basic inflation’s level. Though the reaction of the market is determined by the monthly changes, the annual changes are also noted by the analysts. The index is not reconsidered monthly, but the annual revisions with the seasonal correction factors may give the small amendments in the succeeding publications.

The PPI is counted on the same principle as the CPI. The aggregate cost of the basic basket in the current period of time is divided by the value of the previous period and from the received value minus one. The result is represented in the form of the interests, and the value may be positive, as well as negative. As against the index CPI, the index PPI has the periods of the significant falling, when the published values are negative. The PPI index and the national currency rate have the direct correlation – the growth of the index in the most cases leads to the increase of the national currency rate and vice versa.

The advance of the PPI leads to the inflation of the expenses, which according to the finance analysts strongly influence the economy, than the inflation of the demand, and more seriously reflects on it. The PPI index is usually the leading in comparison with the CPI index, because the consumer prices change with a delay in relation to the wholesale prices of sales of products. The PPI index is published on the 11th of every month at 13:30 (GMT +00). The value of index for the previous month reflects in the publication.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Producer_price_index_(PPI)

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:28 pm

Inflow : Direct and portfolio flows

The indicator reflects the volume of attracted investments. There are direct and portfolio foreign investments. The former is about capital outlays which give the rights of primary control, the latter is when investors content with profit gained from their capital (dividends). The indicator shows positive or negative trend on inflows in the country’s economy. In the first case it is a positive factor for the currency, if the inflow reduces, it is a negative factor for the common currency.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Inflow

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:18 am

Personal income

This index includes salary of workers and employees, rental income, dividends, the bank percent profit, social security benefits etc. It is usually considered together with the indicator “Personal Spending (Consumption)”. It has a scant influence on the market. The index change characterizes the purchasing ability of the population. Its growth, with the level of Personal Spending being normal, can cause the Retail Sales uprise, which is a positive factor for the national economic development, and results in the dollar rate increase. It’s released after the 20th day monthly at 08:30 EST (NY).

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Personal_income

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Sat Sep 03, 2011 8:53 am

Applications for Unemployment Payment

Applications for unemployment payment show the weekly change of the claims’ number for the unemployment benefit. The report is released at 08:30 EST (New-York) on Thursday every week. These figures not always reflect the actual state of the market. Sometime these figures are misrepresented by the short-term factors, such as federal and local holidays. This indicator can give an idea what will be the forthcoming meaning of the index Non-Farm payrolls. For example, if during the month the value of indicator Jobless Claims is successively reducing, then the chances are high that the value of the index Non-Farm payrolls will be high. This index exerts the limited influence on the market. The quantity reduction of the jobless claims is the favorable factor for the increase in the dollar rate.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Applications_for_unemployment_payment

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Sat Sep 03, 2011 10:06 am

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Sun Sep 04, 2011 8:52 am

University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

Michigan consumer sentiment index is results of consumer survey concerning the confidence in the current economic situation. The survey is conducted by the employees of the University of Michigan. The report is released twice a month: in the second week (usually on Friday) near the 15th of reporting month (preliminary) and in two weeks (final). It is published at 10:00 EST (New York). This indicator is nothing more than reflection of consumers’ desire to spend their money. It has limited influence on the market. The growth of index value leads to the upturn of the dollar rate.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/University_of_Michigan_consumer_sentiment_index

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:19 pm

Existing home sales

The figure shows a number of marketed and sold one-family houses per year. This quantity has an increasing tendency, when mortgage loan rate rises, which concerns key interest rates in the country. This data is influenced by seasonal fluctuations by virtue of the market features. That is why for analyzing “New home sales” indicator the moving averages are being used. Has limited influence on the market. Its value growth has positive effect on the domestic currency rate. It is released at 20th day of every month at 08:30 EST (New York).

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Existing_home_sales

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:26 am

Mari kita lanjutkan pelajaran kita di bidang Fundamental gan,

Current account (Balance of payments)

The difference between the sum of payments from aboard and the sum of payments to aboard. If foreign payments exceed the payments to other countries and international organizations, the current account has a surplus (positive balance), in other way, it has a deficit (negative balance). The surplus or the deficit reduction is a favorable factor for the domestic currency. Has limited influence on the market. The current account report is released quarterly, in the middle of the publication month at 10:00 EST (New York).

The index includes 6 groups of goods:

- food

- raw materials and industrial components

- consumer goods

- cars

- installed equipment

- other goods

Separate indicator of “Balance of payments” group is trading balance of the USA and Japan.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Current_account_(Balance_of_payments)

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Wed Sep 07, 2011 10:27 am

Mari para juragan WDC, kita lanjut pelajaran kita dalam hal makro ekonomi indikator.

Trade balance

Foreign trade balance is the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports of goods in an economy over a certain period. The foreign trade balance includes paid in fact or on credit goods transactions. The foreign trade balance is prepared on separate countries or groups of nations.

The trade balance is the annual (quarterly, monthly) rate of foreign deals of a country. If a nation's exports exceed its imports, the nation has a favourable balance of trade, or a trade surplus. If imports exceed exports, an unfavourable balance of trade, or a trade deficit, exists. The trade surplus means that there is demand for country’s goods at the international market and the country produce more than it consumes. The trade deficit signals that the country’s consumption does not only consist of domestic goods, but also import commodities. The trade deficit in such countries as the USA and Great Britain allows to restrain inflation and to support high living standard due to the labour-intensive manufacturing location in other countries.

In the less developed countries, the trade deficit witnesses about non-competitiveness of export sectors of economy that often leads to depreciation (loss of value) of currencies of such countries because they can not pay for import purchases. In economies of such countries as the USA and the UK there is a capital-intensive and high-tech industries that attracts significant volumes of capital in the form of portfolio or direct investments from all over the world. However, these countries have to cover the main part of the trade deficit by the issuing of private or government bonds, because of lacking in competitiveness of the export sectors.

Merchandise Trade Deficit (Balance) is trade balance or balance of trade in goods; it is deficit for many years in the USA. The report on trade in goods details monthly export and import of goods in the USA. It is very important figure, which specifies both net goods flow and monetary and foreign trade policy of the state. The figure is the difference between export and import in absolute terms in billions of the US dollars: Merchandise Trade Deficit (USD bln.) = Export - Import.

Indicator content

The trade balance is complicated figure and is analysed on following directions both on export and import:

1) On groups of goods:

- Food;

- Raw materials and industrial supplies;

- Consumer goods;

- Autos;

- Capital goods;

- Other merchandise.

Or

- Foods and Feeds;

- Industrial Supplies;

- Capital Goods;

- Ex Autos;

- Autos and Parts;

- Consumer Goods;

- Other Merchandise.

At the same time, very important components can be detailed in official reports and following analysis, for example:

- Total Deficit;

- Ex Petroleum;

- Ex Autos;

2) On countries:

- Canada;

- EMU;

- The U.K.;

- Japan;

- Mexico;

- OPEC;

- NICs;

- Other Developing.


The report for the month before last is released by the Census Bureau of the Commerce Department in the second part of every month at 08.30 EST or 16.30 MSK.

Interconnection with other indicators It is one of few indicators, which has not indirect, but direct effect on exchange rate, as reflects flow of funds between countries for provided goods and services. However, paradox is that the currency exchange reaction is minimal by virtue of technical and structural reasons, namely: the report is too delayed from the time, when the real movement takes place. Apart from that, flow of capital, due to commercial relations, is smaller in several times than flow of capital at the lending and stock markets, and time periods of these two flows usually are not the same. As the trade deficit grows, the demand for the foreign currency increases and the domestic currency rate falls. The domestic demand influence on the trade balance as it determines import dynamics, and also the exchange rate, which corrects nominal value of earnings in domestic currency from import.

Indicator behavior characteristics The overall balance is the key figure at the foreign exchange markets. At first, export is analysed, as it has direct influence on the economy growth. Import shows demand for the US goods. Import increase reflects inventories formation that can testify about possible slow sales growth in the future. Further, the specified groups of goods are analysed. There are some special items of export and import, which can significantly affect the trade balance. For example, crude oil - on import (especially, its price growth) and aviation - on export. Depending on goods categories, the rising deficit, formed by slight lowering of export can push the markets of fixed incomes to any direction. In contrast to other sectors of economy, there is no sequential ratio between the trade balance and business cycle phases. During recessions of net export other indicators may both to improve and to deteriorate. The main reason is different synchronization of business cycles in the USA and aboard, and also continuation of the cycle changes in the USA and aboard. Export shows a sequential growth during the phase of expansion of business cycles in the USA, but such ratio is disrupted during recessions and recoveries.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Trade_balance

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Terakhir diubah oleh alventa tanggal Thu Sep 08, 2011 12:53 pm, total 1 kali diubah
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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Thu Sep 08, 2011 12:52 pm

Non Farm Payrolls

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is the number of new created jobs in nonfarm industry per month. Payroll is a pay sheet according to which the wages are handed out to workers. It is the most important economic indicator, after the GDP, having an impact on sentiments over a period of a whole month. This is a highly significant indicator showing the change in employment level in the country. The growth of this index specifies the increase of employment level and leads to the rise of the US dollar rate. It is called “the indicator which manipulates the markets”. There is an empirical rule that the gain of its meaning by 200 000 per month is equated with the GDP raise by 3,0%. As a rule, this data is published on the first Friday of every month at 08:30 AM (EST). The minimal trading signal – change by 40K. Greater change (100 – 200K) may cause a very strong motion at the market. Economists use non-farm payrolls to predict other economic indicators. For example, there is a strong correlation between non-farm payrolls and housing construction, industrial production and personal income. Data is also used for the GDP forecast.

Source: Department of Labor.

Frequency: monthly.

Release schedule: one week on completing of the corresponding month.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Non_Farm_Payrolls

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Fri Sep 09, 2011 9:54 am

Unemployment rate

The unemployment rate shows the percentage of the unemployed in total number of working population. It is released together with Non-farm indicator. It influences the market to a great extent. Usually, the unemployment rate analysis is presented together with Non-Farm payrolls numbers. For example, Non-Farm payrolls rate growth amid unemployment rate uprise shows the unemployment uprise in agricultural sector of economy, etc. Under the conditions of the main interest rates growth expectations, the lowering of its value causes the Us dollar rate uprise. It is usually published at 08: 30 EST (NY) on the 1st Friday monthly, simultaneously with Non-Farm payrolls indicator. The trade signal is the change by 0, 1%.

Source: http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Unemployment_rate

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:59 am

Sembari evaluasi trading akhir pekan mari kita sedikit simak pelajaran berikut gan

The Employment Cost Index

The employment cost index (ECI) includes salary and unemployment payments. It can be used as the indicator of inflationary tendencies in the national economy. The ECI is one of those indicators, which is being monitored closely by the Federal Reserve System while realizing its monetary policy (and this means much). It is also named “A favorite indicator of Alan Greenspan” . Under the conditions of the key interest rate increase expectations, the ECI growth results in the dollar exchange rate uprise. It is used for mid-term and long-term forecasts. The ECI report is released every quarter, after the 20th day of the publication month at 08:30 EST (New York).

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Employment_Cost_Index

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Sun Sep 11, 2011 10:42 am

Report of Japanese Bank «BOJ»

The Bank of Japan report or “Japan’s business confidence index” estimates the changes in mood of the major manufacturers, businessmen, etc. The index downfall reflects the rising negative expectations among the businessmen and, consequently, weakening of JPY. The index growth shows the opposite situation. The indicator is released on first Monday of new quarter, four times a year. Response on it can be very strong. Expectations can also strongly affect the price movement. Release of the indicator concurs with the end of financial year or half-year period. And this, in its turn, can strengthen the fluctuations influenced by expectations.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Report_of_Japanese_Bank_%C2%ABBOJ%C2%BB

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:46 am

The US Federal Reserve System Board of Governors report


The US Federal Reserve System Board of Governors report takes place twice a year: in winter and in summer. Two chambers of the Congress- the Senate and the House of Representatives - change their turns in being the first to hear the report. It sheds light on new plans and goals of the FRS in the monetary policy and is constantly being observed by all market participants, who try to find hints at the possible FRS actions at the moment of the future interest rate changes. This report affects the market to a great extent. It is one of the most important and significant events for the financial market.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/The_US_Federal_Reserve_System_Board_of_Governors_report

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Tue Sep 13, 2011 11:04 am

Mari gan dilanjut.....

Business optimism index Germany «Business climate»

This review is published by the German Institute for Economic Research (IFO). Value below “100” indicates the slow down of economic development and considered as negative factor by the market. The value above “100” shows the growing optimism among businessmen, which, in its turn, cause the euro and the Swiss franc strengthening. Often the rate of this index is influenced by the psychological factors, but actual situation. However, in spite of this, the reaction can be very strong. Index is released in the middle of every month.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Business_optimism_index_Germany_%C2%ABBusiness_climate%C2%BB

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Wed Sep 14, 2011 1:29 pm


Balance of Payment

The difference between the sum of payments from aboard and the sum of payments to aboard. If foreign payments exceed the payments to other countries and international organizations, the current account has a surplus (positive balance), in other way, it has a deficit (negative balance). The surplus or the deficit reduction is a favorable factor for the domestic currency. Has limited influence on the market. The current account report is released quarterly, in the middle of the publication month at 10:00 EST (New York).

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Balance_of_payment

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PostSubyek: Re: Belajar Forex Trading with InstaForex   Thu Sep 15, 2011 1:59 pm

Consumer Confidence Index

This review is an attempt to measure consumer optimism. The index has being calculated since 1967. From the beginning it was equal to “100”. It has limited effect on the market because it can reflect real situation at the market. However, it is traditionally used for forecast of tendencies in the field of employment and general state of the economy. The growth of index value is a positive factor of national economy’s development and leads to the dollar rate upturn. Its value is published at 10:00 EST (New York) after 20th of each month.

Source : http://support.instaforex.com/en/index.php/Consumer_confidence_index

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